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Topic: 99.7 percent chance for major earthquake
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Wildfire532FB
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Forecast: California faces 99.7 percent chance for major earthquake
http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/article/20080414/NEWS01/668226822/-1/rss01
Alicia Chang, Associated Press Science Writer
April 14, 2008
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California — land of sun, beaches and earthquakes — faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong temblor by 2037, scientists said today in the first statewide forecast of the seismic threat.
New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will hit the Golden State in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.
The last time a jolt this size rattled California was the 1994 Northridge disaster, which killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage.
“It basically guarantees it’s going to happen,” said Ned Field, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.
Despite the new results, scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say it should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.
The latest analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, SCEC and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.
Given California’s seismic history, the new results should come as no surprise, said David Schwartz, a USGS geologist in Menlo Park who was not part of the study.
Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.
The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a recent disaster in geologic time compared to the southernmost segment, which has not popped in more than three centuries.
Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino.
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On the Net:
U.S. Geological Survey: http://www.usgs.gov
Southern California Earthquake Center: http://www.scec.org
California Geological Survey: http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/Pages/Index.aspx
[ April 14, 2008, 05:56 PM: Message edited by: 532Fastback ]
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Jdub07
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HAHAHAH 2037. ![[Roll Eyes]](rolleyes.gif) I'm sure every single natural disaster that can happen will happen between now and 19 years from now. What a lame prediction. A two decade prediction when we are already past due for a big one. hahahahhah GAY
Posts: 7282 | Registered: Apr 2003
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Wildfire532FB
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Member # 1482
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quote:
Originally posted by Jdub07:
HAHAHAH 2037. I'm sure every single natural disaster that can happen will happen between now and 19 years from now. What a lame prediction. A two decade prediction when we are already past due for a big one. hahahahhah GAY
actually i think the prediction for the big one went down because now the hayward fault is moving again. When i studied Geology they were saying the Hayward fault hadn't moved in 150 years but its had recent activity so i think its chances have gone down a bit now.
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68 Fastback
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Posts: 17578 | From: 530 | Registered: Jun 2002
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2stangs69-91
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Member # 1951
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posted
I predict there will be a Large Tornado in Kansas in the next year. It will most likely hit a Trailer Park...
I predict a huricane will hit the coast of florida in the next year.....it will either have a boy's or girls name......
I also predict a earthquake somewhere in CA in the next few years.... ![[Eek!]](eek.gif)
I think I am becoming a psychic
1 more it will snow at Dana's house and he will post pics lol ![[Wink]](wink.gif) ![[Razz]](tongue.gif)
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69 Mustang on hold
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Posts: 3711 | From: Redding | Registered: Oct 2002
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Wildfire532FB
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Member # 1482
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posted
LOL
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68 Fastback
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94 HMMWV
95 GT
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Camaro Kid Z/28
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Member # 3100
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posted
quote:
Originally posted by 2stangs69-91:
1 more it will snow at Dana's house and he will post pics lol
I am pretty sure that one is 100%?! ![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
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Posts: 6429 | From: 408 | Registered: Jul 2003
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Pure Stang
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Member # 7251
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posted
quote:
Originally posted by Camaro Kid Z/28:
quote:
Originally posted by 2stangs69-91:
1 more it will snow at Dana's house and he will post pics lol
I am pretty sure that one is 100%?!
LMFAO! hahahhaa ![[dance]](graemlins/dance.gif)
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Posts: 6497 | From: San Jose | Registered: Nov 2006
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Jdub07
( O Y O )
Member # 2728
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posted
quote:
Originally posted by 532Fastback:
quote:
Originally posted by Jdub07:
HAHAHAH 2037. I'm sure every single natural disaster that can happen will happen between now and 19 years from now. What a lame prediction. A two decade prediction when we are already past due for a big one. hahahahhah GAY
actually i think the prediction for the big one went down because now the hayward fault is moving again. When i studied Geology they were saying the Hayward fault hadn't moved in 150 years but its had recent activity so i think its chances have gone down a bit now.
I said 'a' big one not 'the' big one. Even so to me that large of a prediction is just retarded. ![[patriot]](graemlins/patriot.gif)
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